I can't remember the last time I was here...

Tomorrow's Grand Final will be the first time Sydney have played at the 'G in five months

Last night on Channel 7’s The Front Bar Mick Molloy and current Carlton coach Michael Voss discussed Brisbane’s run of form leading into the 2024 AFL Grand Final.

Voss: “They’ve got another mountain to climb, though, to be able to come down to the MCG and play interstate for the third time is difficult in itself. But they’re certainly up for it, they would certainly be a confident side right now.”

Molloy: “Can I say, how big of an advantage is to have actually played on the MCG the week before and beaten a Melbourne team in front of 90,000 people? Sydney haven’t played on the ‘G for a while – can you underestimate the value of having chalked up a win there the week before the Grand Final?”

Voss: “It’s huge, especially when you’re talking about playing in front of the crowd that you had to play in front of and being familiar with the ground. There’s one disadvantage about flying home and then coming back, but I think the benefit outweighs anything that goes against them.”

To say that the Swans haven’t played at the MCG for a while is an understatement.

The last time Sydney ran out at the ‘G was back in round 7 – 153 days ago – when they defeated Hawthorn by 76 points.

This is now the longest time between the games at the MCG for a Grand Finalist since 2000, surpassing the 140-day gap the Swans experienced in 2012.

And while Voss, who captained the Lions to three premierships in the early 2000s, feels that winning a prelim at the ‘G the week before is beneficial for an interstate team, the data doesn’t back that up.

Since 2000 there have been four non-Victorian teams who have won a preliminary final at the MCG. Only one of them – Sydney in 2005 – went on to win the following week.

The Lions lost the 2004 Grand Final to Port Adelaide after defeating Geelong the week before, although this match is infamous as Brisbane were forced to play a home final in Melbourne due to a contract between the AFL and the MCG that stipulated at least one match each week of the finals series would be played at the home of football.

That particular part of the contract was removed after negotiations the following year.

Sydney defeated St Kilda by 31 points in their 2005 preliminary final, and then won again the next week in a four-point thriller against West Coast, courtesy of one Leo Barry.

The Swans made another Grand Final after winning a prelim at the ‘G in 2016 (a 37-point win over Geelong) but lost to the Bulldogs by 22 points.

Finally, Greater Western Sydney won a close-fought prelim against Collingwood in 2019, before losing to Richmond by 89 points the next week.

Non-Victorian teams who played their preliminary final at a non-MCG venue have performed slightly better, winning seven of 16 eligible Grand Finals for a strike rate of 43.8%.

The last non-Victorian team to win a Grand Final after winning a prelim away from the MCG was West Coast, who defeated Collingwood by five points in the 2018 decider.

After taking this into consideration, my tip for tomorrow is Sydney.

May you all have a great day and enjoy watching from wherever you are.