Is Embiid Done with Back-to-Back Games?
The 76ers are hoping Joel Embiid playing fewer back-to-back games will replicate the success the Raptors had in 2018-19, when they rested Kawhi Leonard throughout the regular season.
Philadelphia 76ers centre Joel Embiid. IMAGE: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Earlier this week the Philadelphia 76ers announced that their seven-time NBA All-Star centre Joel Embiid would play few, if any, back-to-back games (games on consecutive days) throughout the 2024-25 season.
The move is all part of a larger plan to ensure Embiid is fit and healthy when push comes to shove in the playoffs, something he has struggled to consistently do over the course of his career.
But injuries haven’t only affected Embiid’s availability and impact during the playoffs. The Cameroonian-born seven-footer missed the entirety of the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons due to a series of foot and knee injuries after being drafted out of Kansas as the third overall pick in 2014.
After making his debut in 2016-17 Embiid has played in only 433 of 637 possible games – missing roughly one in every three games – courtesy of knee and hand injuries, a facial fracture, and COVID and other flu-like symptoms.
During this time the 76ers have played 216 back-to-back games (108 pairs) for a 124-92 record (57.4%). Embiid has played 102 “true” back-to-back games for a 70-32 record (68.6%).
Historical data suggests Philadelphia has performed better when Embiid plays only the second game of a back-to-back, with the 76ers win rate in these games only slightly lower than when the 2023 MVP plays both games.
It will be interesting to see what games the two-time NBA scoring champion suits up for and sits this season, given the 76ers have performed better when Embiid plays the second of a back-to-back (even in away games) compared to when he only plays the first of a back-to-back.
Embiid only plays first game of back-to-back:
16 games at home (7-9 record), four games away (2-2 record)
Six games at home (3-3 record), 14 games away (2-12 record)
Embiid only plays second game of back-to-back:
Three games at home (2-1 record), nine games away (6-3 record)
Five games at home (3-2 record), seven games away (4-3 record)
Daryl Morey, president of basketball operations for the 76ers, acknowledges the plan for Embiid to sit out of games is risky – particularly when there is also the potential that the newly signed Paul George will follow a similar load management approach.
“We’re going to be smart about it… Part of being smart about it is having both Paul and Joel probably not play many back to backs, if any,” Morey told EPSN.
One positive of the plan is that 76ers head coach Nick Nurse has been through this before, overseeing the Toronto Raptors’ 2018-19 championship season where Kawhi Leonard played 60 games and sat out at least one leg of every back-to-back.
The gamble ultimately paid off, with Leonard averaging 39.1 minutes and 30.5 points across all 24 of Toronto’s playoff games. His efforts were rewarded with the Finals MVP trophy that year.
The Raptors went 17-5 in the 22 games without Leonard that season. Of these 22 games, 15 were part of a back-to-back pair, with Leonard sitting out of three complete back-to-backs. Five of these six games were on the road, with Toronto winning four of them. They also won the remaining game at home.
The Raptors won six of the other nine games in back-to-backs without Leonard, with only three of these games being played at home.
Leonard played in nine one-off games as part of the back-to-back schedule (three at home, six on the road), finishing with a 5-4 record during that stretch.
“It wasn’t the same deal,” Nurse said. “But I’m okay with that. I don’t think we can get super caught up with [getting to] 45 wins, 55 wins or 65 wins.”
But the East was less competitive back in 2018/19. This season the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and New York Knicks – who have featured in back-to-back playoff series – all loom as potential roadblocks for Embiid, George, and the rest of the 76ers in their quest to win their first championship since the 1982-83 season.
The timeframe of this stat is limited based on what data are freely/easily available and/or accessible. Please don’t hesitate to contact me if you spot any errors in what I have presented.