One, Two, Three, and Five
The AFL Finals Series is well and truly alive.
Four teams remain in the 2024 AFL Finals Series after Hawthorn and Greater Western Sydney lost their respective semi-finals against Port Adelaide and Brisbane by three and five points.
The total margin of eight points across the two semi-finals is the lowest combined semi-final margin since the AFL introduced its current final eight system in 2000, ahead of the 2001 season (14 points, when Richmond defeat Carlton by 11 points and Hawthorn defeat Port Adelaide by three points).
The largest combined semi-final margin (126 points) occurred in 2017, when Geelong defeated Sydney by 59 points and Greater Western Sydney defeated West Coast by 67 points.
As a result of last week’s games, this week sees the Sydney Swans host Port Adelaide at the SCG, while Geelong will play the Brisbane Lions at the MCG.
The four teams playing this week finished first, second, third, and fifth on the ladder at the end of the home and away season, making 2024 just the third season under the current final eight system where this particular combination of ladder positions have made it to the preliminary final stage.
The 1-2-3-5 combination also occurred in 2018 (Richmond [1] v Collingwood [3] and West Coast [2] v Melbourne [5]) and 2021 (Melbourne [1] v Geelong [3] and Port Adelaide [2] v Western Bulldogs [5]).
It’s still well short of the 14 times the teams finishing in positions 1-2-3-4 have featured in the prelims, but it’s interesting that no other combination has appeared more than twice.
Friday night’s game between the Swans and the Power will be the 11th time the teams that finished first and second on the ladder will face off in a prelim, which last happened in 2017 when Adelaide defeated Geelong by 61 points.
Sydney can be encouraged by the fact that the team finishing on top of the ladder has a 7-3 record in preliminary finals against the team that finished second (with an average winning margin of 29.1 points), and that the minor premier hasn’t lost a 1 v 2 prelim since 2005, when West Coast defeated Adelaide by 16 points.
However, Sydney has not beaten Port Adelaide in its last eight attempts, including their 112-point loss less than two months ago. The Swans’ last win over the Power was back in round 20, 2016.
Regardless of the outcome on Friday night, there isn’t a clear trend of how the winner of a 1 v 2 preliminary final performs the following week in the Grand Final – although I’m sure the winner will be to not follow the losing streak with Sydney and Adelaide.
But as Tony Corke (@MatterOfStats on Twitter) pointed out, the Saturday night game will be the first time the team finishing third plays the team that finished fifth in a preliminary final, so we can’t dive into the history books to see what has happened in this situation before.
But we can certainly talk about the recent finals history between Geelong and Brisbane. The Cats have beaten the Lions in two prelims in the past five years: a 40-point win at the Gabba in 2020 and a 71-point belting in 2022.
You have to go back to the 2004 prelim to find the last time Brisbane defeated Geelong in a final, when current Cats coach Chris Scott ran out in the maroon, blue, and gold and current Lions forward Logan Morris wasn’t even born.
Brisbane will also need to overcome their poor form at the ‘G, having won just two of their 12 games at the venue over the past five years.
The Lions be the first team to make a Grand Final from fifth since the Western Bulldogs in 2021 if they are able to defeat the Cats. They will also be the first team to make back-to-back Grand Finals since Richmond in 2019 and 2020 if they win on Saturday night.
May the best teams win.
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