Rooster one day, feather duster the next?
How do players who receive a Rising Star nomination on debut perform the following week?
In last week’s piece for This Week in Football I highlighted how young South Australian Angus Clarke would be the sixth player to debut for Essendon this year when he lined up for the Dreamtime at the ‘G clash against Richmond last Friday night.
The 39th pick of the 2024 National Draft had a debut to remember, kicking three goals as part of his 16 disposals and 522 metres gained as the Bombers beat the Tigers by 23 points. Clarke received a Rising Star nomination for his efforts, along with one vote from the coaches.
“Definity wasn’t what I thought it [would be], but very very happy,” Clarke told Fox Footy after the win.
The Tantanoola product is now the 34th player to receive a Rising Star nomination on debut since the award started in 1993 – joining the likes of Matthew Primus, Chris Judd, Dean Polo (in the 2006 Dreamtime a the ‘G match), Clayton Oliver, and Errol Gulden – and the 14th player to do so since 2012.
Clarke earned 15.7 rating points – Champion Data’s official measure of how much direct impact a player has on a game through their actions that affect the ball or the ball carrier, expressed as scoreboard impact – which puts him in the middle of the pack with respect to the distribution of player rating totals among players who have received a Rising Star nomination since 2012.
It’s a similar story when you consider players who received their Rising Star nomination on debut – Clarke’s 15.7 is equal to that of Jacob Hopper and Izak Ranike’s efforts in their first games, ahead of North Melbourne’s Harry Sheezel (10.4, the lowest of the 14 players) and behind Clarke’s teammate Nic Martin (19.7, the highest).
(Now for the obligatory reminder that rating points are not the perfect metric of the impact a player had on the game. Lachie Weller had 23 disposals and four goals in Fremantle’s 83-point win over Brisbane in 2016 and got over 30 rating points, Clarke had 16 and three in a 20-odd point win and got 15, while Riccardi had 12 and four in a 38-point win over Fremantle. Yes, these are some cherry-picked stats, but shows the complexity [and potential inconsistency] of the rating points system.)
But how do players who receive a Rising Star nomination on debut perform in their second game? Do they again perform at the level that earned them the nomination in the first place? Or do they drop off somewhat?
Unfortunately, the data suggest that the majority of these players fail to have a similar impact in game two of their careers – with only three of the 14 players improving on their rating point totals from the week before.
As seen from the table above, Clarke experienced a similar drop in player ratings to that of Bailey Scott, collecting 11 disposals and 228 metres gained in a more defensive role compared to how he was used last week against Richmond.
Telstra Tracker heatmaps sourced from the AFL app
The rating points drop off should not phase Clarke. The true impact of defenders is not fully appreciated by the metric, and there is a clear decline in rating points amongst players in their second game. At least his decline wasn’t as sharp as Ollie Wines’ was back in 2013.
Perhaps emotions aren’t running as high, their bodies are sore after experiencing football at the highest level for the first time, or their teammates aren’t looking for them as much. It’s not really clear why, but I feel it’s an interesting observation.
Great read Lincoln